According to Knight Frank, a London-based real estate consultancy, much has happened on the global economic stage in the previous three months, significantly impacting premium residential rental markets around the world. دليل
Greece's debt restructuring plans were in jeopardy in Q4 2011, its southern European neighbors were downgrading already bleak economic forecasts, and any clear evidence of a recovery in the United States seemed a long way off. In the latter three months of 2011, top rents in major worldwide cities battled against this backdrop.
With the global economy in shambles at the end of 2011, corporate demand fell as relocation budgets shrunk, resulting in lower rental volumes in several countries. This explains why quarterly growth in London, Zurich, and Hong Kong fell from 0.9 percent, 3.3 percent, and 1.8 percent in the third quarter to -0.4 percent, -3.2 percent, and -1.0 percent in the fourth quarter, respectively.
Expatriate demand changes are having an impact on Asia. Knight Frank's Greater China Head of Research, Thomas Lam, says World Property Channel, "Due to continued demand from expatriate employees and limited availability, the rental markets in Shanghai and Beijing remained strong in 2011. Rents in Hong Kong, on the other hand, have risen as demand from expats has decreased and the city has faced the consequences of corporate cost-cutting and shrinking operations."
Nairobi's outstanding performance in 2011, which saw it rise to the top of the rankings, is partly due to Kenya's recent economic boom and its growing middle class, many of whom are unable to obtain house loans. Kenya, a country with a population of about 39 million people, has barely 14,000 house loans.
In 2011, the concerts in Moscow and New York were divisive. In Moscow, rents plummeted by about 10%, compared to a nearly 3% increase in New York. The slump in Moscow was partly caused by a frantic time in late 2010, when rents rose by more than 7% in a single quarter. This market adjustment is now complete, and we anticipate rents to stabilize by the end of 2012.
With a 2.6 percent increase in rentals, New York had the biggest quarterly growth. Landlords can thank the banks for better employment stats as well.
"Rental growth has been driven by an excessively tight mortgage market, unchanged from a year ago, which is forcing potential purchasers into the rental market," says Jonathan Miller, president of Manhattan-based Miller Samuel.
We expect prime rents to continue to rise, notably in mainland China and North America, assuming the eurozone crisis resolves as the European Central Bank expects and the global economy gains some traction. The prognosis for Europe is less certain. Future expansion in this sector, notably in the important financial cities of London and Zurich, will be significantly reliant on the strength of their labor markets.